Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Obama and Clinton: tied nationally?

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time - Blogs from "The Democratic presidential race is tightening nationally, according to a new CNN average of several recent polls. Obama's lead is now down to 1 point over Clinton nationwide, 45 percent to 44 percent, in CNN's 'poll of polls.' That margin is down 3 points from another CNN poll of polls conducted two days ago. In that analysis, Obama led Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent. The margin is also considerably lower than an April 18 poll of polls that showed Obama with an 11 point lead."
The full impact of Jeremiah Wright's media extravaganza of a few days ago hasn't made its way into the polls yet. Some of the polling was done before, and some after. That means maybe Obama will fall even more. The percentage of people who view him negatively has increased significantly since February. But as of now we have a statistical dead heat. And I read elsewhere that the supporters of each candidate are increasingly negative about the other. That's to be expected given that they are going negative on each other. Obama's people are mad at Hillary for trashing their candidate, and vice versa.

That's why Hillary Clinton is still in the race. She still has an outside shot, and her odds improved with the Wright fiasco. The farther Obama falls, the more compelling becomes her argument that he is unelectable. She won't say that publicly, but that's the basic line that her campaign is taking with the superdelegates in their private efforts to sway them to her. So far, there is no evidence that this approach has borne fruit, but if Wright continues to occupy center stage for a couple of more weeks, maybe things will change. Remarkable.

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